Markets faced challenges last week, with the US and some European indices slipping, while China, Germany, France, and held firm.
Despite the uncertainty, investors are finding strong opportunities in six key areas.
1. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
US stocks have surged to an all-time high following Trump’s tariff policy. Inventories on the New York Comex exchange reached 39.7 million ounces on Wednesday—the highest level since 1992—valued at approximately $115 billion.
Premiums between New York futures and the London spot market are typically modest, reflecting transportation and storage costs. However, this dynamic changed significantly late last year.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s Mint is facing a bullion shortage due to soaring demand. Gold vending machines in the capital have been emptied as consumers rush to buy the ultimate safe-haven asset. This demand surge has led South Korean banks to temporarily suspend bullion sales, as supply cannot meet local demand.
Retail investors are driving this trend, using as a hedge against domestic political instability and broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties stemming from Trump’s tariffs.
2. Hedge Funds Betting on a Stronger EUR/USD
Hedge funds are aggressively purchasing options that bet on appreciating 6-8% before the end of the year. The most optimistic projections suggest it could even reach the 1.20 level, last seen in 2021.
The currency pair closed the week up nearly +5%, marking its best performance since March 2009, fueled by:
- Germany’s decision to release hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure spending, leading to historic borrowing increases.
- The European Central Bank is taking a more cautious stance on cuts, with traders now pricing in one or two additional 25-basis-point cuts for the year.
- Europe is ramping up defense spending, reducing reliance on the U.S. and strengthening its own military capabilities.
3. European Defense Stocks at Record Levels
The Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:) has surged to all-time highs, gaining 18.71% over the past four weeks and accumulating a 29.31% increase year-to-date.
A total of 10 stocks have risen by over 50%, while 13 stocks are setting new records.
This growth is driven by higher European defense budgets and the potential deployment of European forces near the Ukraine-Russia border.
Although valuations are high, earnings per share (EPS) growth forecasts suggest they remain reasonable.
Key Stocks to Watch:
- Rheinmetall AG (ETR:)
- Indra A (BME:)
- Thales (EPA: EPA:)
- Leonardo SpA (BIT:)
- SAAB AB ser. B (BS:)
- Dassault Aviation SA (EPA:) (EPA: AM)
- BAE Systems (LON: LON:)
4. European Stocks Benefiting from ECB Rate Cuts
The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates to 2.50%, marking the lowest level since February 2023. Several industries are benefiting from this move:
- Real estate
- SOCIMIs (Spanish REITs)
- Overleveraged companies
- Utilities
- Telecommunications
- High-dividend stocks
Notable Stocks in Spain:
- Merlin Group SA (WA:)(BME: MRL)
- Inmobiliaria Colonial SA (BME:)(BME: COL)
- Endesa (BME: BME:)
- Enagás
- Inditex (BME: BME:)
- Cellnex Telecom SA (BME:)(BME: CLNX)
- Iberdrola (OTC:) (BME: IBE)
- Naturgy Energy Group SA (BME:)(BME: NTGY)
- Redeia
Notable Stocks in the Rest of Europe:
- Vinci (EPA: EPA:)
- Deutsche Telekom (OTC:) (ETR: DTEGn)
- Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA (EPA:) (EPA: SGOB)
- Enel (BIT: BIT:)
5. Low-Volatility US Stocks Outperform
Meanwhile, two of the largest low-volatility ETFs are delivering their best performances in years:
- Invesco S&P 500® Low Volatility ETF (NYSE:) (SPLV): Tracks the 100 least volatile stocks in the S&P 500, including Coca-Cola (NYSE: NYSE:) and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: NYSE:). It outperformed the S&P 500 by 5.9 percentage points in February, the strongest showing since April 2022.
- MSCI USA Min-Vol Factor ETF (USMV): Outperformed the S&P 500 by the most since 2019.
6. Strong Inflows into US Bond ETFs
Investors are pouring into ultra-short bond and gold ETFs as market uncertainty looms.
Safer mutual funds saw inflows in February, while riskier options, such as ETFs, faced redemptions.
Last month delivered the strongest returns for U.S. bonds since July 2024. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSE:) closed higher in 10 of the last 12 trading sessions. Longer-term bond ETFs performed even better, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:) ETF surging 5.7%—its best month since December 2023. Ultra-short bond funds attracted $14 billion, the highest monthly inflow since October 2023. The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (NYSE:), the third-largest in the category, brought in $1.9 billion.
****
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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