- Bitcoin’s technical levels suggest a crucial point where a decisive move to follow.
- Bitcoin shows some recovery but isn’t fully back yet.
- Global uncertainties and Fed policies still weigh on the market.
- Looking for more actionable trade ideas to navigate the current market volatility? Subscribe here to unlock access to ProPicks AI winners.
Although has maintained a positive trend over the past two weeks, it still does not show a clear signal of recovery. The cryptocurrency markets experienced sharp declines as March began. While selling pressure has eased, investors remain cautious.
The recent downtrend in Bitcoin is attributed to investor risk aversion in an uncertain global environment. The Trump administration’s plans to impose tariffs on other countries, which are expected to continue, have contributed to global trade tensions. Institutional investors shifting toward safer assets has also led to a decline in cryptocurrencies, despite many positive developments. However, the decline in tariff-related news since last week has sparked a partial recovery in crypto assets.
Fed Influence on the Market
One of the biggest directional factors for the Bitcoin market continues to be the policies of the Federal Reserve. At its most recent meeting, the Fed kept unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, in line with expectations, and projected only a 50-basis point rate cut for 2025. Additionally, the Fed lowered its growth forecast and revised its inflation forecast upwards. This suggests that economic conditions may continue to pose challenges for the crypto market.
The Fed’s announcement that it will slow the pace of balance sheet contraction starting in April may provide short-term relief to the market. However, uncertainty about the rate cut and slowing continue to be pressure factors for riskier assets like Bitcoin in the long term. Nevertheless, a positive outlook prevailed in the market following Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.
Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance Continues
US President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric remains one of the positive developments for Bitcoin. At the Blockworks Digital Asset Conference he recently attended, Trump declared that the US would become a “Bitcoin superpower” and aim to be the “crypto capital of the world.” He also stated that the long-term value of crypto assets would be protected, noting that the Biden administration had sold them at low values.
Despite Trump’s statement, Bitcoin fell. This decline is attributed to the fact that Trump didn’t announce anything new for the crypto market, and concrete actions have yet to be taken. On the other hand, CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement that the SEC withdrew its appeal against Ripple was seen as an important development for both the market and XRP. Overall, the internal dynamics for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain positive. However, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to pose significant barriers to market recovery.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Critical Levels
The falling channel on the Bitcoin daily chart, which has been in place since January, is notable. Bitcoin, currently in a steep accelerated correction phase, finds support and resistance at the lower and upper limits of this channel.
Bitcoin, which fell to the $78,000 range in early March, reversed upward after finding support at the lower limit of the channel. Reaching $87,000 this week, Bitcoin encountered resistance at the upper limit of the channel. If Bitcoin, which tested below the $84,000 level today, closes the day below $84,100, it seems likely the downward trend will continue. This level corresponds to the 8-day EMA. If the price stays above the short-term EMA, we may see one more move toward the upside breach of the channel.
To continue its trend, Bitcoin needs to cross the $85,500-86,500 range on significant volume. A floor above this range and a regain of the $90,000 (EMA 89) level could attract new investors to the market. Beyond $90,000, the $94,000 range stands out as the second short-term target zone. If the upward movement continues, there could be potential for a rise toward $106,000.
If the oscillation within the falling channel persists, Bitcoin’s next stop could be in the $78,000-80,000 range. Losing this intermediate support may trigger a decline toward the $70,000-74,000 area, which coincides with the lower band of the channel.
Conclusion
If Bitcoin fails to break through the resistance zone at $86,340 in the coming days, selling pressure is likely to increase in the short term. In this case, the cryptocurrency is expected to enter a new wave of selling. Otherwise, if Bitcoin continues its upward movement by breaking the $85,500-86,500 range, it could trigger a new uptrend in the market. Critical levels for investors will be closes below $84,000 and breaks above $90,000.
***
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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