Recent sessions for the currency pair have seen dynamic shifts in direction, largely influenced by various international political and economic events. Market attention has been, and will likely continue to be, focused on tariff announcements from US authorities, which are frequently made public.
Preparations for peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine are advancing, with a pivotal meeting between Russian and US delegations set in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In the short term, strong growth data from Japan has bolstered the yen, potentially enabling the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates this year.
Will the US Target Japanese Cars with Tariffs?
Donald Trump is maintaining a steady pace in trade policy declarations. After announcing 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, he has now set his sights on additional market segments. This time, the focus could be on the automotive industry, heavily impacting Germany and Japan.
The primary aim of the new US administration in Washington-Tokyo trade relations is to reduce the approximately $100 billion deficit. Alongside imposing tariffs, the US is exploring increasing exports of liquefied to Japan, aligning with ambitious US production goals.
Japan has requested a halt to the tariffs, which opens the possibility for negotiations in the coming weeks.
Overall, the US dollar experiences downward pressure because, despite numerous announcements, the emerging US tariff policy remains far from the worst-case scenario envisioned during the election campaign. Furthermore, it is still unclear to what extent these actions are negotiation tactics or represent actual long-term solutions.
Japan’s Economy Shows Strength
Earlier this month, Japan’s GDP data surpassed market expectations, showing robust growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.
Figure 1: Japan GDP data – Source: Investing.com
Such data provides the Bank of Japan with more flexibility to raise interest rates with a reduced risk of triggering a recession. The next key data release, which will focus on dynamics, is scheduled for Friday.
If these figures, like the GDP, exceed market expectations, the Japanese yen has a strong chance of continuing its current strengthening trend.
Technical View: USD/JPY Increases Fully Reversed
Early last week, the USD/JPY currency pair experienced a noticeable rebound, concluding around the supply zone at 155 yen per dollar. Currently, the supply side has completely reversed this movement, resulting in another test of the support level near 151 yen per dollar.
Figure 2 Technical analysis of USDJPY
If the bears manage to push the price lower, the next target for sellers will be the clearly defined support just below 150 yen per dollar.
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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