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Trump’s initial tariff push jolted FX markets, with GBP/USD rebounding on hopes the UK avoids trade restrictions.
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Traders eye Thursday’s BoE meeting, where a likely rate cut could shape GBP/USD’s next move.
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With tariffs lifting the dollar, U.S. labor data may add fresh volatility.
- Are you looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate the current market volatility? Unlock access to InvestingPro’s AI-selected stock winners using this link.
Markets kicked off the week with a bang as most major currency pairs, including , opened with a clear weekend gap—signaling renewed strength.
The catalyst? Donald Trump’s surprise tariff announcement: 25% on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China. However, the British pound staged a swift recovery, gaining ground after reports suggested the UK might dodge protective tariffs.
Now, attention turns to Thursday’s Bank of England () meeting, where another 25-basis-point rate cut looks almost certain.
Over the coming days, technical factors may take a backseat as traders react to fresh signals from the U.S. administration, which continues to drive currency market sentiment.
Tariffs Take Center Stage for Investors
Trump’s latest tariff push targets Mexico, Canada, and China, citing illegal immigration, fentanyl smuggling, and trade imbalances. The European Union could be next. However, a one-month delay on tariffs for Mexico and Canada has sparked some hope for de-escalation.
GBP/USD’s Monday rally came on the back of reports that the UK might escape these trade restrictions. This underscores how tariffs remain a major force shaping not just GBP/USD but broader dollar pairs.
For the greenback, an escalating trade war could be bullish. Inflationary pressures from tariffs may force the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-cut trajectory, keeping the dollar supported.
In the near term, all eyes are on Friday’s U.S. labor market data. A print in line with expectations likely won’t shake up the broader market outlook.
Bank of England Poised for Another Cut
The BoE is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday, with market odds hovering around 90%. The vote is likely to come in at 8-1, reinforcing the central bank’s dovish stance.
Beyond the rate decision, and growth forecasts will take center stage. Given sluggish inflation and the need to support economic growth, further easing remains the most probable scenario.
GBP/USD Targets 1.25—Will Bulls Push Higher?
After filling the weekend gap, GBP/USD is testing resistance near 1.25. A clean break above this level could open the door toward December’s highs around 1.28.
The next move hinges on Thursday’s BoE meeting. A more hawkish-than-expected tone could fuel upside momentum, while a dovish surprise may shift focus to support at 1.2250 and 1.21.
For now, GBP/USD traders remain on edge, watching for policy signals that could set the tone for the next big move.
***
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