- U.S. geopolitical moves and domestic oil policies are shaping crude prices.
- Saudi Arabia’s influence on OPEC+ and its ties with the U.S. may drive market direction.
- As oil tests key support, tensions between U.S. ambitions and global realities could spark volatility.
- Kick off the new year with a portfolio built for volatility and undervalued gems – subscribe now during our New Year’s Sale and get up to 50% off on InvestingPro!
prices have been on the decline for the past two weeks, reversing some of the gains seen earlier in the year. The commodity market’s movements are largely influenced by the global geopolitical landscape, particularly the US actions under the new administration.
President Donald Trump has recently been pushing OPEC+ to lower oil prices to weaken Russia’s economy and bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the U.S. is embracing a “drill baby drill” approach, increasing domestic production. However, the interests of U.S. oil giants may not align with the government’s push for increased output, creating potential tensions in the energy sector.
Saudi Arabia’s Crucial Role in Trump’s Strategy
Saudi Arabia’s role is critical in Trump’s strategy, as the country holds significant sway within the OPEC+ cartel. Recently, President Trump reached out to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, though details of their conversation remain scarce.
There’s speculation that Saudi Arabia will be the first stop on Trump’s upcoming foreign visit, breaking with the tradition of visiting Britain first. This shift could mark a new chapter in U.S.-Saudi relations, echoing the strategy of the 1980s that saw a sustained drop in oil prices contribute to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.
As for OPEC+, the group has held steady on its production schedule, with plans to ramp up output in April. However, market watchers are keeping a close eye on developments, particularly in the ongoing diplomatic efforts between Riyadh and Washington.
Is ‘Drill Baby Drill’ Feasible for U.S. Oil Giants?
The “drill baby drill” slogan, a hallmark of Trump’s campaign, faces practical challenges. While U.S. oil companies are committed to moderate growth and improving productivity, they’re hesitant to significantly increase production, especially given stagnant demand from China and the EU and the rise of electric mobility.
Only ExxonMobil (NYSE:) seems poised to sharply boost production, but the broader industry is expected to see a modest 5% growth this year—far below Trump’s lofty ambitions.
WTI Crude Oil Tests Key Support Levels
In the meantime, WTI crude oil is testing key technical support levels. After peaking at $79.30 per barrel, prices have fallen, now targeting the $73 level.
A break below this support could lead to further declines, with $71.30 as the next major support zone, a level that will be heavily influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments and diplomatic negotiations.
***
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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