The volatile international political and economic landscape, particularly the actions of the new U.S. government administration, is adding uncertainty to investment securities.
Precious metals, including , are no exception, as silver has been moving sideways within the $29–$35 per ounce range for many months.
Structurally, silver is expected to maintain a long-term demand advantage over supply, largely due to investments in renewable energy sources, with little change in this outlook.
In today’s analysis, we will focus on the technical perspective from both a local and broader standpoint. Movements in the U.S. dollar are also critical, as its fluctuations are among the most influential factors affecting the broader commodities sector.
Strong Supply Deters Buyers
Looking at silver’s valuation over the past decade or so, we can see that recent gains have slowed near a strong supply zone, which formed in late 2012 within the $34–$35 per ounce price range.
Given the fundamentally bullish environment and weakening seller reactions, a breakout above this level in the long term appears to be the base scenario.
If a breakout occurs, the next long-term target will be the August 2011 highs, around $44 per ounce. The main support level remains at $27, further reinforced by an upward trendline.
No Clear Direction in the Medium Term
Silver’s current price is positioned roughly in the middle of a multi-month consolidation, contributing to a lack of clear direction in its valuation.
If buyers attempt to extend the ongoing local rebound, the nearest target is the supply zone around $34 per ounce. A successful breakout would set the stage for testing the upper boundary of the consolidation range.
For those looking for a better entry point to join a potential continuation of the uptrend, two key support levels have been defended multiple times—around $30 and $29 per ounce. If this broad support zone is broken, the risk of a sustained breakdown from consolidation increases.
The Dollar Index Continues Its Steep Drop
Between October 2024 and January 2025, the strengthened, first due to Trump’s lead in the polls and later following his actual victory.
However, since the start of the year, the U.S. currency has reversed direction, erasing previous gains and approaching the midpoint of the overall range, just below 105 points—confirming a local demand zone.
A local reaction at this level is possible, but if current momentum and trends persist, bears should have little trouble continuing the downward move. The target level, where the probability of a reaction increases significantly, is the psychological barrier at 100 points—defended in late September and early October.
The main resistance remains at 110 points, tested in January; breaking above this level would signal further upside potential. From silver’s perspective, a continued decline in the dollar would be the most favorable scenario for a return to an uptrend.
***
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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